IF THE IRAN DEAL IS SIGNED (Sunday, Switzerland): the peace trade is the play. AAL $16C 7/17 (our sleeve ticket) sells into the 2nd push @ $0.85–1.05 bid · MU starter $35–40 from settled powder · energy stays banned · HOOD re-add likely waits for FOMC.
IF IT SLIPS / DIES: cut AAL at the open bid (a collapse overrides the −50% line in both directions) · drones whipsaw back — do not chase · honor every stop.
| Ticker | Stop | Note |
|---|---|---|
| HOOD | $86.75 | runner, breakeven |
| INTC | $114.25 | breakeven, star +9% |
| RGTI | $19.00 | CHIPS stake thesis |
| SOFI | $15.15 | −8/10% rule |
| NU | $10.95 | −8/10% rule |
| NVDA | $189.00 | core-ish swing |
| SPY | NONE | core, never auto-sold |
| Date | Event | Desk action |
|---|---|---|
| Sun 6/14 | Iran deal signing (Switzerland) | weekend binary — sets Monday script |
| Wed 6/17 | FOMC decision | 2nd $75 SPY core tranche AFTER statement; AAL mid-trade hazard, no panic-cut unless $0.26 |
| ~7/10 | AAL theta / DAL earnings | option off the book by then |
Drop a play idea, a question, or a "sell now" call. The desk reads the wire next session and acts/answers.
Peace trade (half-priced already): airlines ripped on the talks leak (UAL +9.6%, DAL +7%, CCL +8.3%). DAL calls = next week's sleeve candidate, Timeout Monday ONLY after settlement confirmation.
Memory supercycle: Morgan Stanley big PT raises on MU/SNDK (AI memory upcycle, DRAM/NAND constrained thru 2030); Tepper new SNDK stake. SNDK $1,881 (+14.5%), MU $995 (+11.6%) — options untouchable at these prices, expression = a $30–40 fractional MU starter.
Space cluster: MNTS +44%, SPCE +22%, ASTS optionable — later corrected to SpaceX-IPO sympathy, not war. Watchlist only.
1. Theme-decode: 3+ movers sharing a story → name the theme, find the best tradeable (liquid / optionable / sub-$100) expression. Never dismiss a cluster unexamined.
2. Catalyst sweep every Film: gov contracts (Pentagon, CHIPS, DOE), analyst PT raises, insider buys, politically-connected boards = flow signals.
3. Standing theme watchlist: drones (UMAC/KTOS/AVAV/RCAT), quantum (RGTI/IONQ/QBTS), defense primes (ITA/RTX), "gov-takes-a-stake" basket (RGTI/UMAC/INTC).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry | $0.53 (1 contract = $53) — bought 6/12 |
| Last desk mark | $0.56 (+5.7%) |
| Thesis | peace / lower jet fuel; pre-positioned ahead of signing |
| Take profit | $0.85–1.05 into 2nd push post-signing |
| Cut | −50% ($0.26) or deal-collapse headline |
| Hard exit | ~7/10 (theta + DAL earnings) |
Be in ≥1 defined-risk ticket every week — small caps / cheap premiums preferred (~$30–60, catalyst-attached). Defined-risk ONLY: long calls/puts/debit spreads, no naked selling, max ~10–15% of account per ticket.
On deck: DAL calls (peace/fuel) — Timeout Monday after settlement confirmation only.
Live mini-chart auto-rotates. Tap any ticker row's buttons for the live quote on Robinhood / Yahoo / Finviz. Values below = last desk sync (Fri 6/12 close).
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Prices refresh on their own every ~30 min during market hours — no PC needed.
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One-tap screens. These run live on Finviz with the desk's standing filters (avg vol > 2M, optionable, sorted by % change).